These numbers are the engine of your projection. Small changes here can lead to large differences in the outcome. Your assumptions should be realistic and perhaps slightly conservative. The projection engine will use the asset class returns below to calculate a blended rate of return each year based on the recommended investment glide path you select.
Taxes can have one of the largest impacts on your retirement outcome. This model applies a simplified federal income tax calculation to your taxable retirement income each year. This includes withdrawals from traditional 401(k)s and IRAs, pensions, and a portion of your Social Security benefits.
The calculation uses the tax brackets and standard deduction for your selected filing status. Note that this is a simplified model and does not account for state taxes, capital gains, or all possible deductions and credits. However, it provides a much more realistic picture than ignoring taxes altogether. Withdrawals from Roth accounts are assumed to be tax-free and are not included in the calculation.
How you take money out of your accounts in retirement is just as important as how much you saved. This section lets you explore different philosophies for turning your savings into a sustainable retirement income stream.
Based on Spending Needs: This is the most straightforward approach. Each year, you simply withdraw exactly what you need to cover the gap between your expenses and your guaranteed income (like Social Security). It's highly flexible but can be risky in down markets, as you might sell more assets when their value is low.
4% Rule: A classic guideline where you withdraw 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement, and then adjust that dollar amount for inflation each subsequent year. It's simple and provides a predictable income, but it's inflexible to market conditions and may be too aggressive or conservative depending on your retirement length and market performance.
Guardrail Strategy: A dynamic and flexible approach. You set an initial withdrawal rate (e.g., 5%). If your portfolio does well and your withdrawal rate naturally drops below a "lower guardrail" (e.g., 4%), you give yourself a raise. If the market does poorly and your rate rises above an "upper guardrail" (e.g., 6%), you take a small pay cut. This helps you get more income in good years while protecting your portfolio in bad years.
Bucket Strategy: A psychological approach that helps manage market volatility. You divide your assets into three "buckets": a cash bucket for 1-3 years of expenses, a medium-term bucket of bonds for 3-10 years of expenses, and a long-term bucket of stocks for growth. You spend from the cash bucket, refilling it by selling assets from the other buckets when market conditions are favorable. This helps avoid selling stocks during a downturn.
A good plan isn't just about the average outcome; it's about being prepared for the unexpected. This section lets you "stress test" your plan against a period of unemployment or underemployment.
A critical consideration is the **cost of healthcare**. If you lose a job with employer-sponsored health insurance, you must fund it yourself. COBRA or ACA marketplace plans can be extremely expensive. This model automatically applies a higher healthcare cost during the specified interruption period if you are under age 65. Use the field below to add any other extra costs you anticipate during this time.